国外气候变化与人口迁移研究

 通过对国外学术界关于气候变化与人口迁移的相关研究进行梳理发现，人口迁移不仅是气候变化应对机制，更是一系列国家背景、社会、政治和经济环境相互碰撞的复杂结果。针对气候变化问题，提出了各国应加强收集、共享与气候有关迁移的可靠数据，对移民相关政策制定应着力于改善目的地移民安置和生计问题。通过介绍气候变化和人口迁移方向现有国际研究趋势，展望了其未来的研究趋势。     

具有迁移效应和隔离措施的COVID-19传播模型分析

基于COVID-19传播过程中人口流动的必然性、无症状感染者的普遍性和隔离策略的有效性,该文提出了一类具有迁移效应、无症状感染者、自我防护意识和隔离策略的COVID-19传播动力学模型,利用下一代矩阵方法给出了各类子系统和全系统基本再生数的精确表达式.进一步地,通过采用线性近似理论,构造Lyapunov函数、比较原理等方法,得到了无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性以及疾病的持久性.最后,数值模拟解释了主要的理论结果以及人口的迁移和隔离对疾病传播的影响.     

Coral reef tanaidacean assemblages along the SW and SE Gulf of Mexico: biodiversity,geographic distribution and community structure

The biodiversity, geographic distribution, and community parameters of the benthic tanaidaceans associated with three coral reefs along the SW and SE Gulf of Mexico were analysed. A total of 15,525 specimens were grouped in 36 species. The highest value of abundance was found in the PNSAV with 6382 tanaidaceans. The PNSAV presented 30 species, the ANPT-L 16 species, and the SABS 17 species. The species with the widest distribution were Pseudonototanais sp., Condrochelia dubia, Leptochelia forresti, Synapseudes sp., Haplopolemius propinquus, Alloleptochelia longimana, and Paradoxapseudes bermudeus. In the Veracruz System Reef, the highest abundance was recorded for Condrochelia dubia and Pseudonototanais sp. The highest value of diversity was obtained in the SABS (3.08 bits/ind in the reef Bajo Diez), and the lowest value was found in the PNSAV (0.07 bits/ind in the reef Isla de Enmedio). The highest value of abundance was found in coral rubble and macroalgae. A significant relationship between depth and specific richness was found in the three reef systems. Using cluster analysis, three groups were found in each system, mainly related to the proximity to the coast and to urban areas. This is one of the first studies to show the specific substrate and attributes of three communities of tanaidaceans along the SE–SW coast of the Gulf of Mexico.     

Comparative genetic differentiation study of three coexisting mangrove crabs in western Atlantic

ABSTRACT

A multispecies approach may reveal the factors influencing the genetic differentiation of coexisting species along a wide geographic area. Our aim was to compare the genetic differentiation of mangrove crabs coexisting along the western Atlantic in order to verify if there are common barriers, using two mitochondrial DNA markers to quantify genetic differentiation, variance and diversity. In addition, we included a mismatch distribution to check demographic history. Our data revealed that species with similar pelagic larval duration had either high genetic differentiation or the absence of genetic structure. These results can be explained by factors that contribute to genetic differentiation, such as the presence of large estuarine areas (acting as barriers), ocean currents, and larval behaviour. Also, historical events that promoted the isolation of some areas in the past, such as glacial cycles during the Pleistocene, could have caused the observed high levels of genetic divergence in some species.     

文化振兴视阈下乡村文化旅游融合发展的内生逻辑及路径选择

在乡村振兴的过程中,文化振兴往往与文旅融合、产业振兴联系在一起,但通过分析,笔者认为文化与旅游的关系不必然是融合关系,无论从发展阶段还是功能性质来看,二者都存在一定的差异性,当前从文化振兴的角度来看,文旅融合还存在五大矛盾,包括文化资源稀缺与旅游产业逐利性之间的矛盾、文化的严谨性与旅游的随意性之间的矛盾、乡村文化的外来性与旅游资源的本土性之间的矛盾、文化与旅游融合在不同禀赋特征地区之差异化的矛盾、乡村文旅融合低层次性规划与可持续性发展要求之间的矛盾。基于此,本文提出了乡村文化与旅游产业融合发展的路径选择:转变思维,加强农村文化价值内涵的挖掘保护工作;尊重人的主体性,发挥人才的推动力;加强基础工作建设,避免超前跳跃发展。     

武汉地区4种生境蝇类多样性及种群动态分析

2006年1月至2016年12月,在武汉地区4种生境共捕获蝇类4科7属11种15 603只,家蝇和丝光绿蝇为优势种.武汉地区蝇类全年活动,总密度季节消长趋势呈双峰型,第一个高峰出现在5月,第二个高峰出现在9月;蝇类活跃期较长,4—11月密度均较高,不同年份蝇类密度高峰期不同.蝇密度年际消长整体呈下降趋势,仅2010年密度反弹至14.5只/笼.绿化带蝇类丰富度、多样性指数和均匀度指数均最高,居民区次之,餐饮外环境和农贸市场最低.4种生境蝇类群落相似性指数在0.87～1.00之间,均为极相似.基于欧式距离的系统聚类和物种非度量多维标度排序分析显示,2006—2008年和2010年为一组,2011—2016年为一组,相互之间距离较近.这些结果说明,4种生境蝇类多样性与气候和人为干扰因素有密切关系.     

基于改进灰狼算法的粒子滤波算法研究

针对传统粒子滤波算法易出现粒子贫化与权值退化现象和为了实现对非线性系统较为准确的状态估计,通常需要大量粒子的参与的问题,提出了基于改进灰狼算法的新型粒子滤波方法,该算法用粒子表征灰狼个体,模拟狼群捕猎的过程,使粒子向后验概率的高似然区域移动,提高粒子分布的合理性。在灰狼寻优算法中引入了莱维飞行策略,提高灰狼算法的收敛速度;在部分重采样前采用了权值自适应调整策略,增加粒子的多样性。仿真实验结果表明:改进的方法提高了粒子滤波的估计精度、保证了粒子的多样性与粒子分布的合理性、降低了状态估计所需的粒子数量。     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.     

太原市老年体育人口体质评价与分析

对2014年全国第四次国民体质监测太原监测点老年人体质的测试,运用文献资料、数理统计、测量法等方法,得出结论:老年体协人群中优秀率和良好率分别高于非老年体协人群,不合格率低于非老年体协人群;与非老年体协人群相比在身体形态上无显著差异;老年体协的健身活动对提高老年女性人群的身体柔韧性(坐位体前屈)效果明显,对提高老年人肺活量、神经系统反应能力(选择反应时)和握力均有显著效果,对平衡能力和控制力(闭眼单脚站立)的提高效果不明显。